S:if the polls are to be believed Emmanuel Macron could succeed on at least one of the bets underlying these legislative elections, which was provoked by the dissolution of the National Assembly, by the remobilization of the electorate. Since he pressed the “red button”, he repeated. these elections have the mission of creating a “beginning”, an “awakening”. Which, in his eyes, should surely allow him to regain a majority. But at this stage, first of all, this awakening and this start must be embodied through the mass return of the elections. Indeed…
S:if the polls are to be believed Emmanuel Macron could succeed in at least one of the bets underlying these legislative elections, which was due to the dissolution of his National Assembly, the remobilization of the electorate. After pressing the “red button” it repeats. Which, in his eyes, should surely allow him to win a majority again. But at this stage, first of all, it is necessary to embody this awakening and this start through the mass return of the elections. Indeed, a week before the first round, a record turnout is formed.
According to Ifop, 64% of French people said they intended to vote on Friday, June 21. This is 12.5 points better than in the June 9 European Parliament elections (51.49%), 12 points better than the first round of the 2022 legislative elections (51%) and 15 points more than the first round in 2017 (49%). %).
In detail, this renewed interest applies to all age categories. Thus, 53% of 18- to 24-year-olds are ready to vote, and 50% of 25-34-year-olds are ready to vote. In addition, this participation rate increases to 60% among 35-49-year-olds, 70% among 50-64-year-olds, and 73% among those 65 and older. Another remarkable element, this indicator exceeds 50% even among independent professions; 65% among managers, 65% among middle professions, 60% among workers and 55% among workers. Among pensioners, it reaches 73%.
“A very special moment”
“Unlike the usual turnout, this time it is presented in a very homogeneous way,” notes Ifop CEO Frédéric Dabi. All voters want to vote. “And each for their own reasons: supporting or opposing the far right, supporting or opposing the New Popular Front, supporting the outgoing presidential majority or this fringe of Republicans who have not followed Eric Ciotti in his alliance with the National Rally…
“We’ve never experienced anything like this since the late 1997 liquidation. We live in a very special moment.”
One thing is for sure, if this desire to vote persists, with a 64 percent turnout, this legislative election of 2024 could be a great vintage. “We have never experienced anything like this since the last liquidation in 1997,” recalls Frederic Duby. In the following legislative elections, the turnout in the first round was 67.98 percent, and in the second round – 71.08 percent. Therefore, we live in a very special moment. »
This intention to refuse the elections is manifested by a very large number of already created proxies. Between June 10 and 20, the Ministry of Internal Affairs has already registered more than one million, or rather 1,055,067, that is, the context of the moment in the legislative elections held more than two years ago, the National Rally, which has never been so close to coming to power. the left, which despite its division managed to unite, the presidential majority threatened with a crushing defeat, explains this mobilization, the calendar is also important.
In 2022, the two rounds took place on June 12 and 19. The second one will be held there on the first weekend of the school holidays. “This is the first time in historye Republic that we will vote on July 7,” Frederic Dabi insists. The reason for this very large number of proxies. “42% of French people don’t go on vacation,” he recalls. But overall, there is too much heterogeneity among proxies to draw conclusions. »
Republican front
As for who can benefit from this participation, then what the polls show, one element emerges. the second round should present a completely different face than the last legislative elections. “If the participation remains around 64%,” explains Frédéric Dabi, it should be possible to stay at 17% in the second round, which is much less than in 2022, when it was necessary to reach 26 to 27%. “If there were only eight triangles in 2022, this time they should be one of the symbols of this election. “The order of arrival in the first round will therefore be very important,” warns Frédéric Duby. Indeed, where the RN is first on June 30, the pressure will be very strong on those in third to back down in favor of second to block the far right. And this is for the sake of the new republican front.